Beijing Guoan 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Beijing Guoan take on Wuhan Zall.
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Full Analysis
Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Wuhan Zall in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
Wuhan Zall (all games): 0W 6D 3L across 9 Super League outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's away record: 0W 4D 1L from 5 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.89 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.56 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1W, Wuhan Zall 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2021, ended 2–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Wuhan Zall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 44% versus Wuhan Zall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beijing Guoan 33% | Wuhan Zall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.949 / defence 0.982 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.647 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.197. Data: 9 Beijing Guoan games / 9 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 41% | Wuhan Zall 24%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.78 | Draw 2.44 | Wuhan Zall 4.17. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Wuhan Zall 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 41% | Wuhan Zall 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Beijing Guoan 0.98 / Wuhan Zall 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.949 / def 0.982 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.647 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Wuhan Zall xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:30 on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 36% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 24% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 0W-6D-3L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.65x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
41%
2.46
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
1.74
0.76
Wuhan Zall xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.76 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 4W 2D 3L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 0W 6D 3L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 0.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 6D 3L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.00 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 1-4 on 17 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Beijing Guoan 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Wuhan Zall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 50%, Wuhan Zall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Beijing Guoan and 25% for Wuhan Zall.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 50%; Wuhan Zall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 50% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 25% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.76 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.65 / defence 1.02, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 36% | Draw 41% | Wuhan Zall 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 33%, Wuhan Zall 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.