Beijing Guoan 1-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Beijing Guoan take on SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 09:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.43 PPG across 7 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Beijing Guoan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games (2.14 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.43 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SHANGHAI SIPG have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 0.71 PPG clear of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 43% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 43% | SHANGHAI SIPG 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.976 / defence 0.975 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.922 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.167. Data: 7 Beijing Guoan games / 7 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 29% | Draw 39% | SHANGHAI SIPG 32%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 29% | Draw 39% | SHANGHAI SIPG 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 45% | xG Beijing Guoan 0.98 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.976 / def 0.975 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.922 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 09:30 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 29% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.43 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 0.98x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.92x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.45
39%
2.59
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.03
1.05
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.05 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games, 2.14 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beijing Guoan.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.00 scored and 0.43 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Early Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.33 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 33%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Beijing Guoan and 33% for SHANGHAI SIPG.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; Beijing Guoan have failed to score in 33% of games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 33% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 1-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.05 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 29% | Draw 39% | SHANGHAI SIPG 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 43%, SHANGHAI SIPG 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.