Beijing Guoan 0-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shandong Luneng make the trip to Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 57% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.36 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.029 / defence 1.043 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.008 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.214. Data: 37 Beijing Guoan games / 37 Shandong Luneng games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 33%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Shandong Luneng 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.36 / Shandong Luneng 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.029 / def 1.043 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.008 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Shandong Luneng xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 37% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.03) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.01x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.39
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.64
1.28
Shandong Luneng xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.28 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 40W 9D 7L across 56 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 14W 9D 5L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 16W 6D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.39 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.82 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 61%, Shandong Luneng 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 57% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Beijing Guoan's games and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 57% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beijing Guoan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.36 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.28 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.