Beijing Guoan 4-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Beijing Guoan welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 1D 3L at Workers' Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.83 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.100 / defence 1.118 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.001 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.322. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Beijing Guoan games / 6 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 46% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 31%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.23. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 46% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.83 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.100 / def 1.118 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.001 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 46% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Beijing Guoan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.24
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.31
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.48 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 4-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.83 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 46% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 31%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.