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Shock result as Universidad de Concepcion defy the odds to beat Palestino 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Concepcion beat Palestino 1-0 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.26 xG and Palestino 1.35 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palestino landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 35% | Draw 26% | Palestino 39%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Universidad de Concepcion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights