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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Universidad de Concepcion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Concepcion 0-3 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 0.75 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Universidad de Concepcion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Everton de Vina attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 51% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 21%, with Universidad de Concepcion to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights