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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Universidad de Concepcion defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Concepcion beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Huachipato, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.40 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 28% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 45%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Universidad de Concepcion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights