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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Universidad de Chile and Universidad de Concepcion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile and Universidad de Concepcion finished level at 1-1 at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.81 xG and Universidad de Concepcion 0.85 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 60% | Draw 23% | Universidad de Concepcion 17%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights