🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Universidad de Chile (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Universidad de Chile face Union La Calera.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 30 as Universidad de Chile welcome Union La Calera to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Universidad de Chile's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .

Union La Calera — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Universidad de Chile carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Universidad de Chile have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Union La Calera have managed just 1 wins.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Universidad de Chile and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 44% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 44% | Union La Calera 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.76 xG and Union La Calera 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 1.069 / defence 0.767 | Union La Calera attack 0.795 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Universidad de Chile's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Universidad de Chile games / 45 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 62% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 15%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Union La Calera 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Universidad de Chile (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights