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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.87 xG and Union La Calera 0.81 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.28 / defence 0.77 against Union La Calera attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 62% | Draw 22% | Union La Calera 15%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights