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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out U. Catolica 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat U. Catolica 1-0 at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.86 xG and U. Catolica 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile fell 0.9 short of their projected output. U. Catolica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against U. Catolica attack 1.33 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | U. Catolica 28%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 52%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 2.00 PPG, U. Catolica 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights