🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Palestino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.68 xG and Palestino 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 / defence 1.00 against Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 50% | Draw 24% | Palestino 26%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 54%, Palestino 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Palestino's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights