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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Universidad de Chile run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Huachipato 5-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.72 xG and Huachipato 0.61 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Huachipato attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 64% | Draw 23% | Huachipato 13%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Huachipato 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG, Huachipato 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights