Universidad de Chile 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Universidad de Chile (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Universidad de Chile are significantly better at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Everton de Vina are 0.80 PPG clear of Universidad de Chile in recent Primera División fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Universidad de Chile lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 56% versus Everton de Vina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Universidad de Chile 48% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 0.96 xG and Everton de Vina 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.864 / defence 1.183 | Everton de Vina attack 1.229 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.172. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Universidad de Chile games / 59 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 21% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 55%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 40% | Everton de Vina 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 21% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Universidad de Chile 0.96 / Everton de Vina 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.864 / def 1.183 | Everton de Vina attack 1.229 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Everton de Vina xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 21% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Universidad de Chile 0W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.23x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
21%
4.70
24%
4.17
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.67
1.71
Everton de Vina xG
4.70
21%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
25.86
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.71 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Universidad de Chile have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 14D 27L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 18W 23D 18L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 1.31 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Universidad de Chile have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 8W 11D 10L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 18W 23D 18L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Everton de Vina away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.31 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 52%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Universidad de Chile) and 31% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 34% of games; Everton de Vina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 31% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 0.96 xG and Everton de Vina 1.71 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Everton de Vina attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 21% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 55%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 48%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.15 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.