🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.99 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 63% | Draw 20% | Everton de Vina 17%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 53%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights