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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Deportes Iquique 3-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 3.03 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.77 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.67 / defence 0.76 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 82% | Draw 11% | Deportes Iquique 6%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 53%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights