Universidad de Chile 0-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.75 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.911 / defence 1.071 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.649 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.250. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Universidad de Chile games / 8 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 57% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 17%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Deportes Copiapo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Universidad de Chile (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 57% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.75 / Deportes Copiapo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.911 / def 1.071 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.649 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Deportes Copiapo xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 57% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Universidad de Chile home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Universidad de Chile's attack at 0.91x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.65x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
57%
1.77
27%
3.72
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.62
0.87
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
34.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.87 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Universidad de Chile have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
1
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Universidad de Chile 1-0 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Universidad de Chile's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.75 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Deportes Copiapo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.65 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 57% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 17%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.