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Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over D. La Serena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat D. La Serena 3-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.29 xG and D. La Serena 0.74 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against D. La Serena attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 35/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 71% | Draw 20% | D. La Serena 9%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights