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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.19 / defence 0.65, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 34% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 40%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 52%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 2.00 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights