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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Concepción 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Concepción 2-1 at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.56 xG and Concepción 0.64 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Concepción attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 60% | Draw 25% | Concepción 15%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights