Universidad de Chile 1-3 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Colo Colo make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Universidad de Chile (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio El Teniente: 4W 3D 2L from 9 Primera División appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Colo Colo have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 2.30 for Colo Colo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Universidad de Chile half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 63% versus Colo Colo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Universidad de Chile 42% | Colo Colo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 0.93 xG and Colo Colo 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.806 / defence 1.084 | Colo Colo attack 1.196 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.189. Data: 19 Universidad de Chile games / 20 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 20% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 49%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Colo Colo 2.04. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 56% | Colo Colo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 20% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Universidad de Chile 0.93 / Colo Colo 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.806 / def 1.084 | Colo Colo attack 1.196 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Colo Colo xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 3 Colo Colo.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 20% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Universidad de Chile's attack at 0.81x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.20x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
20%
4.88
30%
3.32
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.47
1.54
Colo Colo xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
4%
22.75
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.54 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 6D 4L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 2.05 for Colo Colo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 2.22 points per game from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.68 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 12W 3D 4L in their last 19 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.67 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 3, Colo Colo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 56%, Colo Colo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Universidad de Chile and 44% for Colo Colo.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 44% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 44% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Universidad de Chile.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Universidad de Chile 1-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 0.93 xG and Colo Colo 1.54 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Colo Colo attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 20% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 49%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 42%, Colo Colo 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.74 PPG, Colo Colo 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.