Universidad de Chile 0-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Teniente plays host to Universidad de Chile versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, Universidad de Chile have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal away from home this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Universidad de Chile's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cobresal's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Cobresal — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 57% versus Cobresal 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 43% | Cobresal 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.41 xG and Cobresal 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / defence 0.978 | Cobresal attack 0.654 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.142. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Universidad de Chile games / 14 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 51% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 18%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Cobresal 5.56. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 57% | Cobresal 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 51% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.41 / Cobresal 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / def 0.978 | Cobresal attack 0.654 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cobresal xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 51% chance of winning, Cobresal a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Cobresal in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.97) and Cobresal's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.65x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.22
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.14
0.73
Cobresal xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
4%
23.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.73 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Universidad de Chile's recent record stands at 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 6L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Universidad de Chile by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cobresal heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Universidad de Chile have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Cobresal away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 2.00 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cobresal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Universidad de Chile
4
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 0, Cobresal have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Cobresal 1-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 57%, Cobresal 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Universidad de Chile) and 57% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Universidad de Chile's games and 57% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 57% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Cobresal tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Universidad de Chile.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Universidad de Chile 0-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.41 xG and Cobresal 0.73 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cobresal outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Cobresal attack 0.65 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 51% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 18%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 43%, Cobresal 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.