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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Universidad de Chile.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Universidad de Chile 1-3 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.53 xG and A. Italiano 0.83 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.5 short of their projected output. A. Italiano outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.46 / defence 0.87 against A. Italiano attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 74% | Draw 16% | A. Italiano 10%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a A. Italiano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 55%, A. Italiano 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

A. Italiano's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with A. Italiano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights