Union La Calera 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 30 as Union La Calera welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
Union Espanola — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union La Calera, 1 for Union Espanola and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 52% versus Union Espanola 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Union Espanola 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 2.12 xG and Union Espanola 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.212 / defence 0.848 | Union Espanola attack 1.014 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.094. Data: 61 Union La Calera games / 61 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 64% | Draw 20% | Union Espanola 16%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Union Espanola 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | Union Espanola 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 64% | Draw 20% | Union Espanola 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Union La Calera 2.12 / Union Espanola 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.212 / def 0.848 | Union Espanola attack 1.014 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Union Espanola xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kick off?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola part of?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 64% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union La Calera and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
Record (3 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Union Espanola in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (1.21) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.98
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.06
0.94
Union Espanola xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
53.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.94 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 23W 18D 20L from 61 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Union Espanola, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 26L across 61 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.43 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Espanola's away record stands at 12W 2D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.38 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Union Espanola away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when Union La Calera won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union La Calera
1
Draws
4
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 5, Union Espanola have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Union Espanola 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Union La Calera) and 57% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Union La Calera's recent games and 57% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 2.12 xG and Union Espanola 0.94 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Union Espanola attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 64% | Draw 20% | Union Espanola 16%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Union Espanola 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.43 PPG, Union Espanola 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.