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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Union La Calera 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.90 xG and Palestino 1.21 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 28% | Draw 29% | Palestino 43%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 36%, Palestino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights