Union La Calera 0-0 O'Higgins – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs O'Higgins fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union La Calera and O'Higgins meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
O'Higgins (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
O'Higgins's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union La Calera 1W, O'Higgins 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
O'Higgins goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 56% versus O'Higgins 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | O'Higgins 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.22 xG and O'Higgins 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.782 / defence 1.077 | O'Higgins attack 0.848 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.068. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Union La Calera games / 40 O'Higgins games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 42% | Draw 29% | O'Higgins 29%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | O'Higgins 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | O'Higgins 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs O'Higgins | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 42% | Draw 29% | O'Higgins 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Union La Calera 1.22 / O'Higgins 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.782 / def 1.077 | O'Higgins attack 0.848 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.97
O'Higgins xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs O'Higgins kick off?
Union La Calera vs O'Higgins kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Union La Calera 0 - 0 O'Higgins.
Where is Union La Calera vs O'Higgins being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Union La Calera vs O'Higgins part of?
Union La Calera vs O'Higgins is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 42% chance of winning, O'Higgins a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union La Calera and O'Higgins will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs O'Higgins have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and O'Higgins?
Record (1 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 0 | O'Higgins 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and O'Higgins in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.78x the league average against O'Higgins's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — O'Higgins's attack (0.85x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
42%
2.41
29%
3.42
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.20
0.97
O'Higgins xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and O'Higgins expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.97 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 15W 6D 11L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
O'Higgins's form line: 9W 11D 12L from 32 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Union La Calera are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against O'Higgins.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, O'Higgins have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union La Calera are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; O'Higgins are on 0.97 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: O'Higgins in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
O'Higgins
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and O'Higgins in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while O'Higgins have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or O'Higgins away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.44 PPG; O'Higgins away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or O'Higgins been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, O'Higgins in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against O'Higgins — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
5
Draws
3
O'Higgins
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and O'Higgins?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, O'Higgins have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and O'Higgins last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Union La Calera 3-3 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and O'Higgins?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, O'Higgins 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Union La Calera) and 44% (O'Higgins).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; O'Higgins in 31%; O'Higgins in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / O'Higgins away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play O'Higgins?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 44% of O'Higgins's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs O'Higgins usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union La Calera's recent games and 44% of O'Higgins's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and O'Higgins tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, O'Higgins in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union La Calera's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and O'Higgins finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.22 xG and O'Higgins 0.97 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.2 short of their projected output. O'Higgins landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against O'Higgins attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 42% | Draw 29% | O'Higgins 29%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, O'Higgins 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
O'Higgins's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.