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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union La Calera and O'Higgins share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 7, as Union La Calera and O'Higgins drew 3-3 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.89 xG and O'Higgins 1.21 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. O'Higgins outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against O'Higgins attack 1.24 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 53% | Draw 22% | O'Higgins 24%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, O'Higgins 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, O'Higgins 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights