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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union La Calera and O'Higgins share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 3, as Union La Calera and O'Higgins drew 2-2 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.62 xG and O'Higgins 1.02 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. O'Higgins outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against O'Higgins attack 1.00 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 25% | O'Higgins 24%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, O'Higgins 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, O'Higgins 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights