Union La Calera 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 9 as Union La Calera welcome Nublense to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 May 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.48 xG and Nublense 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.030 / defence 1.026 | Nublense attack 1.000 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.030. Nublense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Union La Calera games / 8 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Nublense 27%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Nublense 3.70. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Monday 31 May 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Nublense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Union La Calera 1.48 / Nublense 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.030 / def 1.026 | Nublense attack 1.000 / def 1.481 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nublense xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Nublense kick off?
Union La Calera vs Nublense kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 31 May 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Union La Calera 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Union La Calera vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Nublense part of?
Union La Calera vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 47% chance of winning, Nublense a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union La Calera and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union La Calera's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.77
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.54
1.06
Nublense xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
6%
16.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.06 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Nublense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union La Calera
5
Draws
1
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 4, Nublense have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.48 xG and Nublense 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Nublense attack 1.00 / defence 1.48, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Nublense 27%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.