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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union La Calera run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nublense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Nublense 3-0 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.04 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Nublense attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 34% | Draw 30% | Nublense 36%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 37%, Nublense 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Nublense's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.11 PPG, Nublense 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights