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Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Everton de Vina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.31 xG and Everton de Vina 1.24 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 37%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.06 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights