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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.84 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Deportes Iquique outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 58% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 19%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Iquique win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 38%, Deportes Iquique 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.12 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights