Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 5W 5D 0L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union La Calera's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Union La Calera, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Union La Calera winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 50% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 47% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.14 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.839 / defence 0.835 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.916 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.239. Data: 43 Union La Calera games / 43 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 40% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 30%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Coquimbo Unido 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 60% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 40% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Union La Calera 1.14 / Coquimbo Unido 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.839 / def 0.835 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.916 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union La Calera 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 40% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.84) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.92x) against Union La Calera's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.27
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.95 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 17L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union La Calera by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Coquimbo Unido heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 6W 7D 2L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.67 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 53%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Union La Calera) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Union La Calera's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.14 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 40% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 30%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 47%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.