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Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.37 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 42% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 32%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights