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Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.38 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.77 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 21%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights