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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Concepción 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Concepción 1-0 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 2.02 xG and Concepción 0.82 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Concepción landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Concepción attack 0.72 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 65% | Draw 20% | Concepción 14%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights