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Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.39 xG and Colo Colo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Colo Colo attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 48% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 24%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Colo Colo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Colo Colo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights