Union La Calera 1-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Cobresal (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union La Calera face Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar than their overall form suggests.
Cobresal — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Union La Calera's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cobresal have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Union La Calera.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Cobresal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cobresal have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 58% versus Cobresal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 44% | Cobresal 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.18 xG and Cobresal 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.919 / defence 0.946 | Cobresal attack 1.073 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.235. Data: 45 Union La Calera games / 45 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 34% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 38%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Cobresal 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union La Calera 50% | Cobresal 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 34% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Union La Calera 1.18 / Cobresal 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.919 / def 0.946 | Cobresal attack 1.073 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cobresal xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 1 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 34% chance of winning, Cobresal a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Record (3 meetings): Union La Calera 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 3W.
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.64
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Cobresal xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.25 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 20D 13L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.56 PPG from 45 outings (20W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.24 PPG, Cobresal on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 8W 10D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.53 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 12W 20D 13L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.55 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cobresal in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Cobresal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 54%, Cobresal 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Union La Calera) and 64% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union La Calera have failed to score in 27% of games; Cobresal in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union La Calera's games and 64% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Union La Calera's recent games and 64% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Cobresal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Cobresal finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.18 xG and Cobresal 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Cobresal attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 34% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 38%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 44%, Cobresal 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.24 PPG, Cobresal 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.