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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union La Calera cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Cobresal 3-1 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.55 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights