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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union La Calera run riot with a 3-0 hammering of A. Italiano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat A. Italiano 3-0 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.20 xG and A. Italiano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. A. Italiano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against A. Italiano attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 43% | Draw 29% | A. Italiano 28%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, A. Italiano 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, A. Italiano 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights