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Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Union Espanola 0-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.25 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 35% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 38%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 60%, Universidad de Chile 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights