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Dominant Palestino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Union Espanola 0-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.71 xG and Palestino 1.27 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Palestino outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 48% | Draw 24% | Palestino 28%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Palestino 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights