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Dominant Union Espanola run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nublense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola beat Nublense 3-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.62 xG and Nublense 1.28 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.92 / defence 1.28 against Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 44% | Draw 28% | Nublense 29%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Nublense 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Nublense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights