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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola beat Huachipato 4-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.85 xG and Huachipato 1.71 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.00 / defence 1.39 against Huachipato attack 1.12 / defence 1.25, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 42% | Draw 22% | Huachipato 36%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 60%, Huachipato 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Huachipato's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.17 PPG, Huachipato 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights