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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Espanola and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola and Deportes Limache finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.61 xG and Deportes Limache 1.18 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.78 / defence 1.29 against Deportes Limache attack 0.89 / defence 1.33, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 47% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 28%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights