Union Espanola 1-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Union Espanola) versus 1.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 57% versus Coquimbo Unido 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 46% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.25 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.783 / defence 1.120 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.664 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.094. Union Espanola's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Union Espanola games / 28 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 47% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Coquimbo Unido 4.17. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Espanola as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Espanola 70% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 47% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Union Espanola 1.25 / Coquimbo Unido 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.783 / def 1.120 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.664 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Coquimbo Unido xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union Espanola 1 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 47% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Espanola's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.42
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.81 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 10W 7D 11L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 6W 5D 17L from 28 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Union Espanola are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 5D 17L in their last 28 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.29 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
1
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 64%, Coquimbo Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Union Espanola) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union Espanola's games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Union Espanola's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 1-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.25 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 47% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 24%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 46%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Espanola arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.