Union Espanola 2-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Colo Colo make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Union Espanola (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Colo Colo away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.90 for Colo Colo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Colo Colo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Union Espanola 1W, Colo Colo 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Union Espanola winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 66% versus Colo Colo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 62% | Colo Colo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 0.97 xG and Colo Colo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.982 / defence 0.876 | Colo Colo attack 1.242 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.120. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Union Espanola games / 40 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 29% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 42%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Colo Colo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union Espanola 80% | Colo Colo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 29% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Union Espanola 0.97 / Colo Colo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.982 / def 0.876 | Colo Colo attack 1.242 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Colo Colo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Colo Colo kick off?
Union Espanola vs Colo Colo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Union Espanola 2 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo part of?
Union Espanola vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 29% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union Espanola and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Union Espanola and Colo Colo in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 0.98x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.24x) against Union Espanola's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
29%
3.42
29%
3.46
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.19
1.22
Colo Colo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.22 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 15W 3D 14L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Colo Colo's form line: 19W 5D 8L from 32 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Espanola.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 10W 3D 3L from 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 19W 5D 8L in their last 32 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.81 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Colo Colo have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
1
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, Colo Colo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Union Espanola, 50% for Colo Colo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union Espanola) and 50% (Colo Colo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Union Espanola's games and 50% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Union Espanola's matches and 50% of Colo Colo's.
Do Union Espanola and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Colo Colo 2-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 0.97 xG and Colo Colo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Colo Colo attack 1.24 / defence 0.74, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 29% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 42%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 62%, Colo Colo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Union Espanola winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.