Union Espanola 0-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Colo Colo make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Union Espanola (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo away from home this season: 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Union Espanola against 2.00 for Colo Colo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 71% versus Colo Colo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 57% | Colo Colo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.48 xG and Colo Colo 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.305 / defence 1.301 | Colo Colo attack 1.294 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.121. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Union Espanola games / 14 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 29% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Colo Colo 2.22. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 86% | Colo Colo 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 29% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Union Espanola 1.48 / Colo Colo 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.305 / def 1.301 | Colo Colo attack 1.294 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Colo Colo xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Colo Colo kick off?
Union Espanola vs Colo Colo kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Union Espanola 0 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo part of?
Union Espanola vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 29% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Espanola and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and Colo Colo in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.30x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.29x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
29%
3.51
26%
3.82
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
3.37
1.89
Colo Colo xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
15%
6.60
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
4%
23.15
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.89 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 6W 3D 5L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo's form line: 8W 3D 3L from 14 games, 1.93 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Espanola.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Union Espanola are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.64 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 2.00 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Colo Colo have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
1
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, Colo Colo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 86%, Colo Colo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union Espanola) and 57% (Colo Colo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Union Espanola's games and 43% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union Espanola's matches and 57% of Colo Colo's.
Do Union Espanola and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Union Espanola 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Union Espanola 0-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.48 xG and Colo Colo 1.89 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Colo Colo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.30 / defence 1.30 against Colo Colo attack 1.29 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 29% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 45%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 57%, Colo Colo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colo Colo's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.