Union Espanola 2-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union Espanola at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union Espanola's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cobresal's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union Espanola, 2 for Cobresal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Cobresal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Union Espanola half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Espanola 66% and Cobresal 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 62% | Cobresal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.34 xG and Cobresal 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.090 / defence 0.907 | Cobresal attack 1.089 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.050. Data: 42 Union Espanola games / 42 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 28%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cobresal 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union Espanola 80% | Cobresal 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Union Espanola 1.34 / Cobresal 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.090 / def 0.907 | Cobresal attack 1.089 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cobresal xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Cobresal kick off?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Union Espanola 2 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Union Espanola vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Cobresal part of?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 43% chance of winning, Cobresal a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union Espanola and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): Union Espanola 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 2W.
What form are Union Espanola and Cobresal in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.09) and Cobresal's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.09x) against Union Espanola's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.40
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
Cobresal xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.04 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Espanola come into this having played 32 games, going 15W 3D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.25 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Espanola's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.25 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Cobresal away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.81 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Cobresal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Cobresal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Union Espanola, 56% for Cobresal — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Union Espanola and 56% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Union Espanola's games and 56% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Union Espanola's matches and 56% of Cobresal's.
Do Union Espanola and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola and Cobresal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 11, as Union Espanola and Cobresal drew 2-2 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.34 xG and Cobresal 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Cobresal attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 28%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 62%, Cobresal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.50 PPG, Cobresal 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.