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Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Union Espanola 0-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.45 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 45% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 29%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights